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    南方多雨中部高温,大豆市场异常清淡

    行业要闻 2022-06-23 1920 0 0
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      近日,南方豆区持续大范围降雨,苏、鲁、豫、皖却持续高温,加之全国各类学校陆续放假,豆制品集中消费群体减少。高温令豆制品消耗下降,加工企业或作坊大幅压缩产量,国内豆市异常清淡。   近期,南方大范围降雨仍在持续,而长江以北及黄河以南的苏、鲁、豫、皖却持续高温,致使各地夏播难以如期进行;而高温令豆制品消耗减少,加工企业或作坊均大幅压缩产量,防止产品过剩后质量劣变。据气象预报,6月22日夜间至23日白天,自北向南有一次大范围降雨过程,高温和干旱有望缓解,各地抢种工作将全面展开。   全国大中院校和初、高中学生陆续放假,南方强降雨和中部地区的高温天气,导致建筑类户外施工单位暂停作业,豆制品集中需求群体超常减少。   受终端转化下降和国储持续增量拍卖影响,东北产区追涨势头减弱,现行价格趋于稳定,流通日益减少。关内豆区因旱情日益加剧,高温天气不利于抗旱造墒,播期推迟令剩余种源入市推迟,但利于库存释放,建议持有过多豆源的主体加快消化,二、三等豆源尽可能适当调整价格。   国储拍卖调整节奏跟随需求   国储增量投拍后,需求主体反倒“不渴了”,成交量下降令国产豆拍卖由“一周两拍”变成“一周一拍”。进口大豆每周50多万吨的拍卖令压榨企业紧盯外盘的“热乎劲”降温,成交量明显下降,成交价格轮次间也跟随走低,压榨企业观望和规避风险的意识增强。   上周国产大豆增量投拍后,4.1378万吨的拍卖计划仅成交1.481万吨,需求明显下降。本周二(6月21日)对产于2017年至2019年的陈豆继续拍卖,计划投放3.1451万吨,标的分布于绥棱、扎兰屯、宝泉岭、敦化;其拍卖底价分别为6100元/吨、6120元/吨、6020元/吨、6020元/吨,比之前适度下调,仅成交8116吨;成交均价6114元/吨,成交率仅25.8%,比上一轮进一步下降。其原因是蛋白企业所需原料已陆续从关内或从之前拍卖中获得,同时产能也大幅下降;而豆制品加工步入淡季,现货转化全面迟滞。   与此同时,停止很久的国储大豆收购,于6月20日再次在黑龙江北安启动收储,三等大豆入库价为6150元/吨,对于蛋白含量在39%以上的豆源,可视质量情况随行就市。国储这一举措,将对东北产区的弱势给予一定支撑。   进口大豆6月17日计划拍卖50.74万吨,仅成交9.12万吨,成交率17.9%,成交均价5574.16元/吨,成交结果虽比上一轮增加3.62万吨,但成交均价下降188.23元/吨。6月24日,国储继续投拍产于2019年的进口大豆50万吨,标的分布于山东、河北、四川、湖南、辽宁。   自印尼宣布6月14日解除棕榈油出口禁令后,连日来外盘油脂行情急转直下,国内油菜籽冲高回调,压榨企业收购价格日益下降;同时,高企的大豆价格也使企业不得不选择慎重或保持观望。   东北追涨收敛流通缓中趋弱   东北各地的田管期基本结束,豆农和种子经营主体剩余种源开始转商,持有较多豆源的农户待价惜售情绪陆续松动。贸易商仓中豆源经过较长一段时间消耗后,滋生追涨心理,但在追涨过程中,终端除了逐渐补充一定豆源外,又增加关内豆源或进口豆采购,加上豆制品转化淡季已经显现,东北产区的追涨情绪已经收敛。同时,关内部分产区的二、三等豆源明显低于东北拍卖豆流入蛋白企业的价格,不仅影响现货行情,而且东北豆流向进一步收窄,近期流通日益变缓。   东北产区基层农户持有豆源日益减少,贸易商库存较往年同期偏低,这是东北贸易商看涨的理由,殊不知关内的鲁、豫、皖产区现行价格已经与之背离,终端消耗日益减量,东北豆源需求主体随着国储拍卖而不断被分化,豆制品加工仅倾向于选择优等豆源。   上周末,东北产区42%以上蛋白含量塔选商品豆装车报价6400~6460元/吨在运输优势区占主流;塔选分离的大粒型商品豆装车报价6500~6560元/吨;39.5%~40.5%蛋白含量的普通塔选商品豆随之跟涨,主流报价6300~6340元/吨;黑龙江东部地区同类豆源虽跟随波动,但涨幅依然滞后,主流装车价比运输优势区低80~120元/吨。   东北豆现行价格续涨有难度,有价无市状态陆续显现,各地流通量日益下降,鉴于基层贸易商库存较少,价格下调也有难度,这种僵持局面或维系较长一段时间。进口美湾大豆经过前期的高位运行,市场替代稍有减量,但外盘坚挺的趋势开始减弱,已失去继续上冲的动能,市场已适应巴西大豆价格,影响东北大豆销量。东北贸易主体不要认为美湾豆价格上涨,会让终端需求全方位倒向东北豆,因为关内豆价格在短期内超越了东北豆的优势。   关内持续高温种源入市推迟   东北豆价格上涨,很大程序上利于关内同类豆源的转化,但毕竟终端进入消费淡季,致使部分库存偏多的主体出货意愿上升。由于这类主体持有的豆源质量下降,多以二、三级为主,只有降价向蛋白企业售卖。蛋白企业购买关内这类豆源,入厂价格仅6380~6400元/吨,明显低于东北国储拍卖豆现行入厂价格,而优质豆源虽出现挺价,但流通却“不冷不热”。   关内苏、鲁、豫、皖自夏收后,仅出现短暂阵雨,各地持续37~40摄氏度的高温,“今天浇明天干”的现象拉长了夏种时间,播后剩余少量大豆种源超预期推后,这样有利于库存转化。鉴于终端需求较弱,各地外发量仍不多。天气预报本周自北向南一场大范围降雨,有助于缓解高温干旱局面,上述各地借助墒情抢种大豆工作或全面展开。   上周,鲁、豫、皖地区二、三级豆源已开始向蛋白企业输入,不同质量店面装车价仅5900~6000元/吨,而优质豆源装车价稍显坚挺,以6560~6640元/吨占主流,少部分蛋白含量在43%以上的装车报价6700~6760元/吨。   江苏南部豆区的南通、大丰、兴化、盐城、淮安、宿迁等地,优质“大乳白”货源较少,装车价稳定在7700~7760元/吨之间,“翠扇”“腐豆”类收购量较少,以混收为主,主流装车报价7360~7500元/吨。北部豆区的徐州市贾汪区、睢宁、沛县等地“杂花豆”主流装车价6600~6660元/吨。   美湾大豆连续两周上涨,各地净粮装车价在5940~5960元/吨之间,终端替代陆续减少。天津港42%~43%蛋白含量加拿大豆源装车报价6500~6550元/吨,湖南岳阳港6680~6720元/吨;天津港俄罗斯“加豆”品种装车报价6160~6200元/吨,流通量均大幅下降。

      近期南北产区国产豆源转化迟滞,不完全是受进口大豆抑制,国储拍卖也减少了东北豆流通;南方大范围降雨、中部持续高温、学生陆续放假等一系列不利因素的出现,形成了产销区这种低消耗局面。这种状态或持续至8月中旬,而7月中旬起湖北新季豆便会上市,因此,各产区行情此时上涨难度较大,产销区经营主体不宜盲目增加库存,切勿对后市存有大幅上涨的心理。

    来源:粮油市场报;作者:特约分析师刘从新;农产品集购网转载本文仅为传播更多信息为目的,并不表示本网认可文中作者观点。如因作品内容、版权、稿酬未付和其他任何问题需要同本网联系的,请在30日内进行,联系电话0512-65716709#8012。

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